SIRG Workshop 2013
The SIRG 2013 workshop was held in Dunedin on
11th – 13th February 2013.
An electronic copy of the final proceedings can be found here.
Please email firstname.lastname@example.org for any questions regarding the conference.
Next Web Talk: 5th June
Brian Anderson, Victoria University of Wellington
Glacier Change in the Southern Alps, 1880-2100
Glaciers in the Southern Alps last reached a maximum stand in the late 1800s. Since that time, many of the larger glaciers have lost kilometers of length,
and hundreds of metres of ice thickness. This ice loss has been the result of warming estimated between 0.7 and 1 K. To assess the overall ice volume loss
since the late 1800s, and estimate future glacier volume loss given various climate change scenarios, we use a coupled mass-balance/ice flow model. To start,
an equilibrium state at the late 1800s position is generated by imposing a cooling of 0.8 K from the 1980-2010 mean temperature. Historic maps and geomorphic
evidence are used to tune the uncertain precipitation distribution to achieve a good match between observed and modelled extent. Due to the present-day glacier
imbalance, a 'dynamic calibration', is carried out where the temperature forcing is progressively warmed from late-1800s to present-day values. During the 100 years
between the '1990s' (1980-2000) and the '2090s' (2080-2100) the warming in the central Southern Alps, based on the A1B, A2 and A1FI emissions scenarios and a downscaled
12-model GCM ensemble average, is estimated to be between 2.0 and 2.8 K, with a concurrent increase in precipitation of 10-15%. These future warming scenarios are
then imposed upon the model glaciers. Preliminary results show that, in the central part of the Southern Alps, ice volume decreased from 53 km3 in the late 1800s to
40 km3 by 1980. Projected warming and precipitation increases result in a modelled ice volume of between 16 km3 (A1FI) and 20 km3 (A1B) by 2100.
The locations of the video conference rooms for each
Auckland: Room 429, Level 4, Human
University of Auckland, 10 Symonds St., Auckland
Canterbury: Room 164,
Level 1, Geography-Psychology Building, Canterbury
Massey: Room 4.40, Social
Massey University, Palmerston North
Otago: Teaching Facilities South West corner, Information Services Building
Details of Previous Web Talks